Friday, April 15, 2011

Obama plans to reduce the deficit by $4 trillion in the next 12 years. What does this mean? $8 trillion of new debt in 12 years not $12 trillion in debt. In 2011, the federal government had $2.2 trillion in revenue and $3.8 trillion in expenditures (wiki).

Having some debt is OK and can be sustainable. Here 3% of debt to GDP ratio seems to be a number that is sustainable. And this can be achieved by perhaps 2018 based on Obama's budget, which may not include all of his budget deficit fighting measures. But does this all matter? Japan has been borrowing at a 1.4% interest rate with a total debt of over 200% total GDP. Currently, we're close to 100% of total GDP (here).

Eventually it will matter and when it does health care costs will be the biggest factor. Interesting blog post about comparing the Ryan and Obama plan on controlling Medicare costs. How do we control costs and give people the health care they need. Do we use market forces or a government panel?
"Medicine is an inexact science that with deals with life-and-death questions. In many cases, there's little evidence to determine whether a particular treatment will help. In that gray area, it's very difficult to define what counts as "needed services.""

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